The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index
October 2026 release
Uncover emerging trends. Anticipate shifts in retention. Keep your best people.
Employee Retention Index falls to its lowest level since 2024 as the generational divide widens
The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index fell 2.1 points to 102.1, its lowest level since 2024. The latest decline means that U.S. employees are less likely to stay with their organizations over the next six months.
The drop is not an isolated change. After peaking at 105.8 in the third quarter of 2025, the Retention Index has followed a downward trend, signaling an ongoing weakening in employees’ intent to stay in their roles. While the Index remains relatively strong compared with historical levels, the direction is clear: U.S. employee retention sentiment has been eroding over the past year.
What’s driving the shift? Employees have less confidence in their organizations and feel less positive about their workplace culture and compensation. At the same time, they see more opportunity in the job market than they did at the beginning of the year—a combination that could make leaving more attractive.
The latest data shows a widening divide across generations. The Retention Index has deteriorated among Millennials, Gen X and Baby Boomer workers, while Gen Z continues to signal a strong intent to stay. The widening generational divide is the clearest near-term story: the greatest retention risk facing employers is their more experienced workers.
Latest retention indicators
None of the Retention Index’s four indicators—Organizational Confidence, Culture, Compensation, and Job Market Opportunity—strengthened this period. The Culture indicator posted the largest decline, falling 3.1 points, with deteriorating culture sentiment reported by nearly every workforce segment. Organizational Confidence fell 0.9 points, giving back the confidence gains expressed by the workforce last period. Employees’ outlook on the external job market edged down as the Job Market Opportunity fell 0.3 points. Compensation was the only indicator not to decline, holding at 104.6 after its steep 5.6-point loss last period.
-3.1
Culture
Reverses a year of improving sentiment
-0.9
Organizational Confidence
Falls to lowest point since 2024
-0.3
Job Market Opportunity
Rebounds following two consecutive periods of declining sentiment
No change
Compensation
Holds at 104.6 after declining sharply last period
Key employee retention insights for Q3 2026
A record generational divide emerges in retention outlook
The convergence of employee sentiment and retention outlook observed among all workforce generations last period proved short-lived.
The Retention Index declined sharply among Gen X and Baby Boomers, while Gen Z moved in the opposite direction. These changes widened the retention outlook gap between Gen Z and Baby Boomers to 22.3 points—a record generational divide between the youngest and oldest generations of workers.
- Baby Boomers’ Retention Index declined to 90.5, down 6.3 points.
- Gen X’s fell to 93.8, down 5.3 points.
- Millennials’ declined modestly 106.8, down 0.8 points.
- Meanwhile, Gen Z’s Index increased to 112.8, up 1 point.
The longer-term results add important context. Compared with a year ago, retention sentiment is weaker for Baby Boomers (by nearly 10 points), Millennials (7.4 points), and Gen X (3.4 points); while Gen Z’s has strengthened by nearly 7 points. Although Millennial’s Retention Index has declined throughout the year, this period’s data find the most immediate worker retention risk lies in older—and likely more senior—employees.
Older workers’ retention outlook declines as Gen Z stands apart
The underlying indicators reinforce this pattern:
- Baby Boomer confidence in their organizations and satisfaction with culture are at their lowest levels in two years. Their satisfaction with compensation is at a 21-month low, while their views of the job market remain relatively stable.
- Gen X’s culture sentiment is at a nearly three-year-low and their satisfaction with compensation is at a nearly two-year low. Gen X’s confidence in their organizations has followed a downward trend over the past year, but remained stable over the last period. Their outlook on external job opportunities has weakened over the last year, though strengthened this period.
For employers, this shift creates risks that can extend beyond turnover. Gen X and Baby Boomer employees often hold institutional knowledge, lead teams, manage important relationships, and support leadership succession. Declining retention sentiment among these workers can affect business continuity even when it does not immediately result in employees leaving.
Men and women are looking at two different job markets
Men’s and women’s perceptions of external employment opportunities moved dramatically in opposite directions this period.
The men’s Job Market Opportunity indicator rose 8.8 points to 106.0, its record high. Meanwhile, the women’s Job Market Opportunity indicator fell 8.4 points to 93.4, its record low. Together, these shifts produced a 12.6-point gap between men and women’s sentiment about external opportunities—a historic divide.
For men, greater confidence in external opportunities could create a stronger pull toward other employers. Yet the picture is different for women. Fewer perceived opportunities elsewhere should not automatically be interpreted as greater loyalty or stronger retention.
The women’s Retention Index declined, as did their organizational confidence and culture sentiments. These data suggest a tension between seeing fewer opportunities elsewhere and having weaker reasons to stay. The longer-term pattern adds to this concern: women’s Retention Index is 6.9 points lower than the same period last year, while men’s is nearly unchanged.
Men report record-high perceptions of the external market while women hit a record low
Culture sentiment falls, erasing a year of gains
Culture experienced the largest decline among the four retention indicators, with nearly every workforce segment reported deteriorating culture sentiment.
The Culture indicator fell 3.1 points from 104.0 to 100.9, a decline that erases nearly all the culture improvement gains recorded over the previous year.
The downturn was widespread. Millennials are the only demographic group measured to report improved culture sentiment, rising 1 point. In contrast, employee opinion of culture deteriorated a significant 7 points among Gen X employees, 5.5 points among Baby Boomers, and 3.1 points among Gen Z. Women reported a 3.6-point decline, compared with a 1.6-point decline among men.
With culture sentiment weakening across so many segments of the workforce, employers have reason to look closely at the employee experience they are creating. Culture is also one of the retention factors employers can influence most directly. Leaders can examine how factors such as leadership connection, recognition, manager behaviors, and employees’ connection to the organization are shaping experiences across their workforce.
Employee sentiment toward workplace culture plummets across much of the workforce
Although Millennials continue to hold a comparatively strong retention outlook, the data shows a workforce growing less satisfied with their current circumstances and more optimistic about external opportunities. These dynamics signal a growing attrition risk among a generation that increasingly occupies management, leadership, and specialized professional roles.
Where employers can focus now
Look beneath a workforce-wide view. The Retention Index shows that retention sentiment is weakening, but the demographic findings reveal different sources of risk. Leaders can examine employee experience and retention data by role, tenure, function and other relevant workforce characteristics to identify where conditions are changing most quickly.
Protect critical knowledge while strengthening culture. The largest declines are concentrated among Gen X and Baby Boomers. The data indicate a timely opportunity to identify roles that carry significant institutional knowledge, leadership responsibilities, or succession risk and examine whether those employees have compelling reasons to remain engaged.
Distinguish employee commitment from limited mobility. As the Index findings demonstrate, employees who perceive fewer outside opportunities are not necessarily more committed to their organizations. Retention is shaped by the combined employee experience, and the latest results show that the workforce as a whole is feeling less confident in their organizations at a time when sentiment toward workplace culture is weakening.
Melissa Jezior
President & CEO
“A workforce-wide average can conceal significant retention risks. Leaders should pay close attention to where retention sentiment is weakening, especially among employees in critical roles and at different career stages.”
Track. Assess. React.
The first of its kind, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index tracks quarterly sentiment of U.S. workers across four proven drivers of employee retention, which compose the Index’s indicators:
- Organizational Confidence: measures how confident employees are in their organization’s future and their organization’s leadership.
- Culture: measures how employees feel about their workplace culture, connections, feeling valued and recognized.
- Compensation: measures how employees view their compensation, benefits, and ability to grow their compensation at their organization.
- Job Market Opportunity: measures how employees perceive external prospects for employment and job security in the near term.
As the Employee Retention Index increases, it signals an increase in workforce retention in the next six months. As the Index decreases, it warns employers that workers are more likely to leave their jobs, and organizations can expect more turnover in the months ahead.
Methodology
The Index is based on a monthly omnibus survey conducted by IPSOS of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults employed full or part time. Quarterly indices and reports are issued based on a minimum of 1,200 aggregated responses per quarter. Respondents are polled on a range of workforce topics including organizational confidence, culture, compensation, and job market opportunity.
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